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The Chase Pretty Much Locked After Charlotte
By: Gregg A. Shultz RaceFanVote.com
You probably expect to see a lot of the usual suspects in the Chase every year and possibly
a surprise or two in or out, but did you know how early in the season those drivers seemed
to be locked in?
If you hear any of the drivers talking about needing to have a good points weekend at
Charlotte, there’s a lot more riding on it than you might think.
By: Gregg A. Shultz RaceFanVote.com
You probably expect to see a lot of the usual suspects in the Chase every year and possibly
a surprise or two in or out, but did you know how early in the season those drivers seemed
to be locked in?
If you hear any of the drivers talking about needing to have a good points weekend at
Charlotte, there’s a lot more riding on it than you might think.
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Good stats and observation. I had no idea.
Daniel C.
Daniel C.
Is this an indicator of just how tight the competition is or is it more that by this time of the
season the cream has already risen to the top?
Obviously anything can happen, 3-4 bad races for the tenth place driver or 2 or 3 wins for
the driver 15th in points, but historically the cards are stacked against that happening.
In 2005 Jeremy Mayfield made it in the Chase by winning the last race of the regular season.
He finished 9th in the Championship rankings just 99 points in front of Kurt Busch who was
sat out of the last 2 races of the Chase under suspension by Roush.
I am sure that I will get a few emails saying that it’s too early to be looking at points, who’s
in and who’s out, but normally the pasts stats are pretty accurate. The big unknown is that
the teams are learning the COT and a few teams that are out of the top 12 now could make
a big push in the second half of the season and make it in.
All things considered with the new style car and the variables associated with it, it will make
for an interesting September night race in Richmond which is the cut-off race for the Chase.
Will the past trends hold true or will we see a big shake up in the Chase field in 2008?
Stay tuned!
season the cream has already risen to the top?
Obviously anything can happen, 3-4 bad races for the tenth place driver or 2 or 3 wins for
the driver 15th in points, but historically the cards are stacked against that happening.
In 2005 Jeremy Mayfield made it in the Chase by winning the last race of the regular season.
He finished 9th in the Championship rankings just 99 points in front of Kurt Busch who was
sat out of the last 2 races of the Chase under suspension by Roush.
I am sure that I will get a few emails saying that it’s too early to be looking at points, who’s
in and who’s out, but normally the pasts stats are pretty accurate. The big unknown is that
the teams are learning the COT and a few teams that are out of the top 12 now could make
a big push in the second half of the season and make it in.
All things considered with the new style car and the variables associated with it, it will make
for an interesting September night race in Richmond which is the cut-off race for the Chase.
Will the past trends hold true or will we see a big shake up in the Chase field in 2008?
Stay tuned!
Top 12 After Charlotte
1 Jeff Gordon
2 Jimmie Johnson
3 Matt Kenseth
4 Denny Hamlin
5 Jeff Burton
6 Tony Stewart
7 Kevin Harvick
8 Carl Edwards
9 Kurt Busch
10 Clint Bowyer
11 Kyle Busch
12 Jamie McMurray
1 Jeff Gordon
2 Jimmie Johnson
3 Matt Kenseth
4 Denny Hamlin
5 Jeff Burton
6 Tony Stewart
7 Kevin Harvick
8 Carl Edwards
9 Kurt Busch
10 Clint Bowyer
11 Kyle Busch
12 Jamie McMurray
2007
Top 12 End of season
1 Jimmie Johnson
2 Jeff Gordon
3 Clint Bowyer
4 Matt Kenseth
5 Kyle Busch
6 Tony Stewart
7 Kurt Busch
8 Jeff Burton
9 Carl Edwards
10 Kevin Harvick
11 Martin Truex, Jr.
12 Denny Hamlin
1 Jimmie Johnson
2 Jeff Gordon
3 Clint Bowyer
4 Matt Kenseth
5 Kyle Busch
6 Tony Stewart
7 Kurt Busch
8 Jeff Burton
9 Carl Edwards
10 Kevin Harvick
11 Martin Truex, Jr.
12 Denny Hamlin
In Red Fell Out Of The Chase Since Charlotte, In Green Transferred Into The Chase Since Charlotte
Top 10 After Charlotte
1 Jimmie Johnson
2 Matt Kenseth
3 Mark Martin
4 Tony Stewart
5 Dale Earnhardt, Jr.
6 Kasey Kahne
7 Jeff Gordon
8 Jeff Burton
9 Kevin Harvick
10 Kyle Busch
1 Jimmie Johnson
2 Matt Kenseth
3 Mark Martin
4 Tony Stewart
5 Dale Earnhardt, Jr.
6 Kasey Kahne
7 Jeff Gordon
8 Jeff Burton
9 Kevin Harvick
10 Kyle Busch
2006
Top 10 End of season
1 Jimmie Johnson
2 Matt Kenseth
3 Denny Hamlin
4 Kevin Harvick
5 Dale Earnhardt, Jr.
6 Jeff Gordon
7 Jeff Burton
8 Kasey Kahne
9 Mark Martin
10 Kyle Busch
1 Jimmie Johnson
2 Matt Kenseth
3 Denny Hamlin
4 Kevin Harvick
5 Dale Earnhardt, Jr.
6 Jeff Gordon
7 Jeff Burton
8 Kasey Kahne
9 Mark Martin
10 Kyle Busch
Top 10 After Charlotte
1 Jimmie Johnson
2 Greg Biffle
3 Elliott Sadler
4 Ryan Newman
5 Jeff Gordon out
6 Tony Stewart
7 Kevin Harvick
8 Carl Edwards
9 Jamie McMurray
10 Kurt Busch
1 Jimmie Johnson
2 Greg Biffle
3 Elliott Sadler
4 Ryan Newman
5 Jeff Gordon out
6 Tony Stewart
7 Kevin Harvick
8 Carl Edwards
9 Jamie McMurray
10 Kurt Busch
2005
Top 10 End of season
1 Tony Stewart
2 Greg Biffle
3 Carl Edwards
4 Mark Martin
5 Jimmie Johnson
6 Ryan Newman
7 Matt Kenseth
8 Rusty Wallace
9 Jeremy Mayfield
10 Kurt Busch
1 Tony Stewart
2 Greg Biffle
3 Carl Edwards
4 Mark Martin
5 Jimmie Johnson
6 Ryan Newman
7 Matt Kenseth
8 Rusty Wallace
9 Jeremy Mayfield
10 Kurt Busch
Top 10 After Charlotte
1 Dale Earnhardt, Jr.
2 Jimmie Johnson
3 Matt Kenseth
4 Jeff Gordon
5 Tony Stewart
6 Bobby Labonte
7 Elliott Sadler
8 Kurt Busch 1st
9 Ryan Newman
10 Kevin Harvick
1 Dale Earnhardt, Jr.
2 Jimmie Johnson
3 Matt Kenseth
4 Jeff Gordon
5 Tony Stewart
6 Bobby Labonte
7 Elliott Sadler
8 Kurt Busch 1st
9 Ryan Newman
10 Kevin Harvick
2004
Top 10 End of season
1 Kurt Busch
2 Jimmie Johnson
3 Jeff Gordon
4 Mark Martin
5 Dale Earnhardt, Jr.
6 Tony Stewart
7 Ryan Newman
8 Matt Kenseth
9 Elliott Sadler
10 Jeremy Mayfield
1 Kurt Busch
2 Jimmie Johnson
3 Jeff Gordon
4 Mark Martin
5 Dale Earnhardt, Jr.
6 Tony Stewart
7 Ryan Newman
8 Matt Kenseth
9 Elliott Sadler
10 Jeremy Mayfield
In Red Fell Out Of The Chase Since Charlotte, In Green Transferred Into The Chase Since Charlotte
3 drivers changed positions
2 drivers changed positions
1 driver changed position
1 driver changed position
In the last 4 seasons since the Chase Format began only seven drivers have made the
Chase that weren’t in after Charlotte, which includes only one in both 2006 & 2007, 3 in
2005 & 2 in 2004. What’s even more amazing is how close to the transfer in/out line is for
those who got shuffled meaning if your guy isn’t in or right at the line after Charlotte then
you can statistically count him out. The exception to the rule is in 2005 Matt Kenseth who
was 21st in points after Charlotte managed to not only make the Chase, but finished out
the season 7th in points.
Chase that weren’t in after Charlotte, which includes only one in both 2006 & 2007, 3 in
2005 & 2 in 2004. What’s even more amazing is how close to the transfer in/out line is for
those who got shuffled meaning if your guy isn’t in or right at the line after Charlotte then
you can statistically count him out. The exception to the rule is in 2005 Matt Kenseth who
was 21st in points after Charlotte managed to not only make the Chase, but finished out
the season 7th in points.
Top 12 Going To Charlotte
1 Kyle Busch
2 Jeff Burton
3 Dale Earnhardt, Jr.
4 Denny Hamlin
5 Clint Bowyer
6 Jimmie Johnson
7 Carl Edwards
8 Tony Stewart
9 Kevin Harvick
10 Jeff Gordon
11 Greg Biffle
12 David Ragan
1 Kyle Busch
2 Jeff Burton
3 Dale Earnhardt, Jr.
4 Denny Hamlin
5 Clint Bowyer
6 Jimmie Johnson
7 Carl Edwards
8 Tony Stewart
9 Kevin Harvick
10 Jeff Gordon
11 Greg Biffle
12 David Ragan
2008
Currently Out Of The Top 12 To Position 25
13 Ryan Newman
14 Kasey Kahne
15 Martin Truex, Jr.
16 Juan Pablo Montoya
17 Brian Vickers
18 Travis Kvapil
19 Bobby Labonte
20 Matt Kenseth
21 David Gilliland
22 Kurt Busch
23 Jamie McMurray
24 Paul Menard
25 Scott Riggs
13 Ryan Newman
14 Kasey Kahne
15 Martin Truex, Jr.
16 Juan Pablo Montoya
17 Brian Vickers
18 Travis Kvapil
19 Bobby Labonte
20 Matt Kenseth
21 David Gilliland
22 Kurt Busch
23 Jamie McMurray
24 Paul Menard
25 Scott Riggs
Current Standings Before Charlotte
Very Interesting...
Samantha T FL
Samantha T FL
Thats probably pretty close. I think David
Ragan and Greg Biffle will be replaced by
Ryan Newman and Kasey Kahne though.
LBC OH
Ragan and Greg Biffle will be replaced by
Ryan Newman and Kasey Kahne though.
LBC OH
The big variable that you mentioned with
the COT will probably come into play. I
think we might see as many as five
positions change.
ABC in LA
the COT will probably come into play. I
think we might see as many as five
positions change.
ABC in LA
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